Economic slowdown doesn’t dent housing industry confidence: report
Fortress Real Developments issued their semi-annual Market Manuscript, which brings together third party reports, original surveys, and custom analysis for key markets across the country and uses them to paint a comprehensive picture of housing in Canada today.
“Canada doesn’t have a national market – rather, we have a collection of regions,” says Ben Myers, senior vice-president of market research and analytics at Fortress, and author of the report. The Fall 2015 edition of the Market Manuscript does indeed look at Canada as a whole – but it also takes deep dives into the Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton, Ottawa and Winnipeg markets.
Report highlights include:
- National industry concerns: New polling of the residential builders and developers shows that the industry is not concerned with household debt, overvalued housing, or speculative investors, but remain cognizant of rising interest rates and eroding affordability
- Underbuilding in Toronto: Contrary to recent reports, housing starts are trending below demographic fundamentals, with the metro area expected to experience a multi-year period of underbuilding – leading to further unit appreciation
- No movement in Calgary: Despite an expected fall of 40 per cent in conventional oil investment across the province, the Calgary CMA’s housing market is holding steady, with losses in the energy sector offset by gains in the service sector, especially education, and healthcare
- Strong unit absorption in Edmonton: Despite declines in new condo sales, completed projects continue to be absorbed by the market. Resale pricing and transaction volume remain consistent with 2014
- Strength in Ottawa’s secondary rental market: Although construction activity is beginning to cool after years of historically elevated activity. Private condominium investors are encouraged by condo rental rate growth and low vacancy rates despite elevated high-rise completions
- Winnipeg price growth beginning to moderate: With recent job losses being detrimental to the overall housing market, prices continue to increase, but at a much more moderate pace, compared to previous red-hot years