Rebound in Residential Property Sales Predicted in 2024: CREA

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is forecasting a rebound in residential property sales this year.

Photo by David McBee from Pexels

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is predicting a rebound in residential property sales in 2024.

CREA has updated its forecast for home sales activity and average home prices via Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations for 2024 and has extended the outlook to include 2025.

Image source: CREA

According to CREA, Canadian housing markets have remained relatively quiet since the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes last year.

“Interest rates have been the major factor affecting markets over the last few years, and this is expected to continue in 2024 and 2025,” says CREA. “Expectations around the timing of the first 2024 rate cut have recently been pulled forward. The expected number of total cuts to interests rates (in terms of basis points) in 2024 have also increased in the last few months.”

The forecast for housing sales activity this year has been raised and given its starting point is lower than previously expected, the 2024 annual forecast remains unchanged as a result.

According to CREA, some 489,661 residential properties are predicted to trade hands via Canadian MLS Systems in 2024, a 10.4 per cent increase from 2023.

The bigger sales gains in 2024 are expected to come from provinces where housing demand is strong such as Alberta and provinces that are expected to see a rebound from historically low sales volumes such as British Columbia, Ontario, and Nova Scotia.

The national average home price is forecast to climb 2.3 per cent on an annual basis to $694,173 in 2024.

Alberta, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador are all predicted to see price gains in excess of the national increase while British Columbia and Ontario are predicted to see prices remain flat.

National home sales are forecast to climb an additional 7.3 per cent to 525,498 units in 2025 as interest rates continue to decline and approach “neutral” levels.

This prediction would still have activity running below it’s long-term trend.

According to CREA, the national average home price is predicted to rise by 4 per cent from 2024 to $722,063 in 2025, as demand strengthens amid supply constraints. Prices in Alberta and on the East coast are expected to outperform other parts of Canada in 2025.

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